If you would be so kind to look at the 300mb level map above you will notice the jet-stream is moving east to west through Canada. The high for today was 64 degrees Fahrenheit with SSW winds in the 5-10 mph range. Therefore my prediction for today was quite accurate. But enough for today, what about tonight and tomorrow? Well look what I saw a little earlier this evening...
It appears some mackerel sky patterning in some cirrocumulus clouds. Now I am sure a lot of you are wondering what this means. Well this mackerel patterning is an indication that the wind direction is changing.
Early on in the day winds were SSW which isn't much of a threat for precipitation with these types of clouds.
However...
The barometric pressure has been falling since about midday. This is due to the low pressure system that has moved into the area. The low pressure system has caused a shift in wind direction from SSW to ESE. When Cirrus clouds of any type are moving in a direction from the E to SE, precipitation is most likely in the future. And that is exactly what I am predicting for tonight and tomorrow along with the continuation of upper 50 degree Fahrenheit highs. Expect a good amount of rain and lightning is also likely. Just look at the precipitation being drawn northward by the low pressure system on the surface map below.
Just how likely is that we will see a thunderstorm between tonight and tomorrow?
Well looking at the skew-T chart for Minneapolis I see that there is an LI value of 11.2. This bodes for a good chance of strong thunderstorms. Looking at the chart I also take into account that the Environmental Lapse Rate is between the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate and the Moist Adiabatic Rate. Therefore I know this air parcel is conditionally unstable. This means the air parcel needs a lifting mechanism, which I think the the warm winds from the low pressure system should provide.
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