Current Weather Conditions for Saturday March 31st, 2012

 Current Conditions
Temperature - 46 degrees F
Wind Direction - SE
Wind Speed - 5mph
Barometric Pressure - 1029.78 gkg
Cloud Cover - Overcast
Apologies for the late night post everyone. I was rock climbing all day and had the most monstrous cookout, with three of my good buddies, I have ever taken part in. I am sore, tired, bruised up, uncomfortably full, laying in my bed on the verge of sleep, and ready to give you all a late night weather briefing.

I will admit there was not any sun today as I predicted and it didn't get very warm at all. This was due to the center of a low pressure system moving farther south into Wisconsin than I had anticipated. Which of course resulted in cloudy conditions, prohibiting the earth's surface to be warmed up by the sun.

Examine the map above and you will notice the mixing of a warm front and cold front on the northwest edge of Wisconsin. This is resulting in an occluded front, which indicates the warm front is giving way to the cold front. Which as you all now means the colder air is causing the warm air to rise. Which raises the question, will this result in the possible precipitation I had mentioned in my last post?

Based on my observations of the water vapor satellite image above I am inclined to say no. It is pretty clear that there isn't a significant amount of precipitation in our general area. So for tomorrow expect warmer conditions and less cloud cover, associated with a high pressure system.

Current Weather Conditions for Friday March 30th, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature - 46 degrees F
Wind direction - 3mph
Wind speed - ESE
Barometric pressure - 1029.85 g/kg
Cloud cover -Overcast (alto-stratus)

The rain held off until the very beginning of this morning, just as I had predicted. Thankfully, rain is just much better to fall asleep to than to walk to class in. So what is up for tonight and tomorrow. Well as you can tell it is rather cloudy and cool today. I am going to a bbq at my friends' house, not ideal weather I must admit but hey it's Friday! Anyways back on topic, I am sure the question on many of your minds is will their be sun and will it be warm tomorrow? Well for all of you going through withdrawal from absurdly out of season weather Eau Claire saw over spring break, the answer is yes. Let's take a look at why this is.

  
 The graph above is from the metstation on top Phillips, the values measured are for Barometric pressure over the course of last evening and today. As you can see barometric pressure fallen quite a bit since yesterday at 5 p.m. However I anticipate that barometric pressure will increase over the course of tonight and tomorrow resulting in clearing conditions allowing for the sun to shine and warm up surface temperatures.

Also if we look at the the satellite image it is pretty clear that the colder weather we have today is being caused by the continental polar jet stream dipping down into Wisconsin from Canada. Tomorrow I predict a low pressure system with a warm front will move into the area will move just to the north of Wisconsin . This will cause the continental polar airmass to move north of Wisconsin as well. So expect less cloud cover tomorrow and warmer temperatures (high for the day possibly upper 60's). We'll get more into this tomorrow, but the current alto-stratus clouds could mean precipitation late tomorrow night or Sunday.

Current Weather Conditions for Thursday March 29th, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature (Fahrenheit) - 49 degrees F
Wind Speed - 1 mph (gusting to 7 mph)
Wind Direction - ESE
Barometric Pressure - 1029.99 g/kg
Cloud Cover - clear (some cirrus clouds)

Alright to start today's post off, I would like to apologize for the missing post yesterday. My prediction for yesterday was correct however, temperatures were indeed cooler than on Tuesday. Anyways what I really want to show you today is a prime example of what to look for in cloud formations when determining whether wind direction is shifting. If you had time to look this morning the wind direction was NE, and the sky looked like this.

Notice the pattern of striation in the clouds, this is what is known as a "Mackerel Sky". The name comes the fish because of the scale-like pattern. This striation patterning is caused by a shift in wind direction, which breaks the clouds apart. It is always a tell-tale sign that a shift in wind direction is occurring. So the NE winds we had early this morning gave way to E winds, then ESE winds, and later on this afternoon wind direction will shift to SE. Now that wind direction has shifted this what the sky looks like currently.

As you can see we have some cirrus cloud formations, despite mostly clear skies. Which leads to my next point, what does cirrus clouds in conjunction with SE winds mean? When you see cirrus clouds with winds from the East to Southeast, as general rule of thumb you can expect rain in the next 20 to 30 hours.

That's right Eau Claire, the forecast is calling for a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon. I'm going out on a limb and making the call that we won't see any precipitation until early tomorrow morning, likely around 1 am to 4 am. To make up for forgetting to post yesterday I will post again later this evening to keep you all in the loop.

Current Weather Conditions for Tuesday March 27, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature (Fahrenheit) - 68 degrees F
Wind direction - WSW
Wind speed - Gusting between 15mph and 30mph
Barometric pressure - 1029.51 g/kg
Cloud Cover - Broken (Cumulus Mediocris)



Despite a rather brisk morning, temperatures were still much warmer today than averages this time in March. My prediction was correct in that regard and we saw a little drizzle here and there but no spring showers. However we may be in store for some spring thunderstorms tonight. Possible thunderstorms are indicated by cumulus cloud formations and that have grown vertically throughout the day along with the wind direction shifting to more of a SW direction. In order for thunderstorms to come to fruition a SW wind needs to continue along with a more vertical growth in the current cumulus clouds.



Looking at the water vapor satellite image it doesn't appear as though there is an abundance of water vapor in the area currently.



However with an LI rating of 10.6 and a KI index value of 31 we have rather contradictory information on the possibility of a thunderstorm. The LI index indicates the atmosphere is very stable, yet the KI index indicates an 85 percent chance of thunderstorms. In my personal opinion I see a low chance for thunderstorms tonight and cooler temperatures than today for tomorrow. That said I will be keeping my eye on the clouds, looking for vertical growth.

Current Weather Conditions for March 26, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature- 42 degrees Fahrenheit
Wind Direction- ESE
Wind Speed- 7 mph
Barometric Pressure- 1030.19 g/kg
Cloud Cover- overcast

Over the past week and a half I have spent about 30 hours driving and made it all the way to Chattanooga, TN and back to Eau Claire. Believe me I would've probably never come back if it hadn't down-poured the last day I was there. Seeing as you can't climb very well when the rock is wet, I am back and ready to keep you posted on the weather patterns in Eau Claire.

Today has been much cooler than temperatures Eau Claire has experienced the last two days. In fact I have heard a lot of complaining about the cold today from my roommates. As you can see on the 300mb map above the continental polar air mass is dipping down into Wisconsin, this is something we haven't seen in Eau Claire for quite awhile. In affect this is what is causing colder temperatures than recent temperatures. I know what your thinking, your probably thinking I'm nuts because wind direction is currently ESE.

I agree with you the surface wind direction is ESE, the 500mb wind direction is NW. So what is causing the difference in wind direction? Well if you direct your attention the map below you can see that we are currently under the influence of a high pressure system.

A high pressure system moves in counter clockwise direction. This is what is causing ESE wind direction despite the NW wind direction of the jetstream. So what are we in store for late tonight and tomorrow? Well I expect the low pressure system to the west of Wisconsin is going to move east and push the high pressure system out of our vicinity. This will result in overcast skies, warmer weather, and the possibility of some spring showers.

Current Conditions for Friday March 16th, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature: 70 degrees Fahrenheit
Wind Direction: SEWind Speed: 7 mph
Barometric Pressure: 1029.93 g/kg
Cloud Cover: clear

As I predicted, it's only 1:30 pm and we have already surpassed yesterday's high and the winds are SE. In all honesty, I really can't brag much about my accurate prediction streak lately. The weather is just getting to repetitive. Anyways remember the other day when I talked about the danger of trees and other plants blossoming? Well they are go take a look for yourselves today. So shall we take a look at what is going on in the atmosphere the rest of the day and tomorrow?



Well currently on the water vapor sattelite image, courtesy of NOAA, it is evident there isn't much moisture in the vicinity of Wisconsin at all. Will this continue into tomorrow though?



I'm inclined to think not for two reasons. The first being the mixing warm and cold fronts in southern Wisconsin, caused by the low pressure system over Iowa and the high pressure system over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Looking at the isobars on the map, the pressure gradient of the high pressure system is quite weak. This tells me moving into late tonight and tomorrow morning that high pressure system will be well west of us. Therefore warm moist air will once again be traveling north from the Gulf.

Current Weather for March 15th, 2012

Current Conditions
Temperature- 63 degrees Fahrenheit
Wind direction- NE
Wind speed- shifting from 0 to 5 mph
Barometric pressure- 1029.89 g/kg
Cloud cover- clear

The high for today was 66 degrees Fahrenheit around 4 o'clock when the wind direction briefly shifted from E to SW, just as I predicted. What is going on currently and what can we expect for weather in the next 24 hours?

 

Well...if you direct your gaze to the surface map above you will notice the high pressure system to the north of Wisconsin. Currently this high pressure is causing the clear conditions and NE winds. Between now and early tomorrow morning the winds will start to shift from NE to SE. Therefore tomorrow will be warmer than today.

Current Weather Conditions for March 14th, 2012

Current Conditions in Eau Claire:
Temperature- 65 degrees Fahrenheit
Wind Direction- SW
Wind Speed- Erratic between 2 mph to 8 mph
Barometric Pressure- 1029.76 g/kg
Cloud Cover- Scattered

"What a Wonderful World", in the words of the Great Satchmo. I am sure many of you felt that way today, I know I enjoyed the unseasonably warm high of 76 degrees Fahrenheit today. I am pretty sure most of the country did in fact, take a look at the map below.

 

However the question should be asked, are temperatures so high above normal a good thing? What could be some potential problems due to the temperature being 31 degrees Fahrenheit above the average in Eau Claire? Well if temperatures continue to be warm all the way into mid-April there won't be any issue. As we all know Wisconsin weather isn't exactly the most consistent. That said there is a problem if trees and plants start budding, honeybees start collecting pollen, and birds start gettin' it...well you know and is followed by a cold-snap. This scenario could spell disaster for Wisconsin agriculture and agriculture throughout much of the Midwest.

So we all best hope temperatures cool down quick, before nature wakes from its deep winter sleep or that continental polar jet-stream doesn't dip south and produce a brutal cold-snap.

As you can see it really isn't much of a threat at the present moment, so what does this mean for the weather conditions overnight and tomorrow?

If you look at the surface map above you will notice the low pressure system, the air being sucked inward in a counter-clockwise rotation is what is causing the current SW winds. As the night progresses that low pressure system will move further south and east out our area. When this happens, sometime in the next one to two hours, the high pressure system above is will cause winds to shift to N winds. Along with the shift in wind direction expect clearing cloud cover. While the jet-stream is still hanging out well north of Wisconsin I expect the continuation of warm temperatures. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today however due to N winds instead of the SW winds we had today.

Current Weather Conditions for March 12th, 2012

 Currently in Eau Claire
Temperature (Fahrenheit): 50 degrees
Wind: SW at 9 mph
Cloud Cover: Overcast (nimbostratus and stratus)
Precipitation: Scattered rainshowers
Dewpoint: 1030.2 g/kg


The Eau Claire area did see the rain I called for overnight and earlier this morning. However the thunderstorms I predicted (hoped for) didn't show. I am sure some of you out there were looking forward to a good thunderstorm just as much as I was. For those of you who don't understand how someone could really want a thunderstorm, there is actually some science behind people's love for thunderstorms. During a thunderstorm the atmosphere is cleared of positive ion buildup and there is a high concentration of negative ions instead, for many people this induces a euphoric feeling. So all you haters out there now understand why I also want big bad weather systems. Anyways what is Eau Claire in for the rest of the day?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wisconsin/weather-radar

First take a look at the radar above. You will notice that most of the precipitation is going to be north of Eau Claire the rest of the day. However there is one band of moderate precipitation with an southeast to northwest orientation. I predict Eau Claire will likely see this precipitation move through the area around 5pm to 6pm. After that I expect the majority of the precipitation will cease and the current overcast skies composed of precipitation producing nimbostratus and stratus clouds will begin to clear overnight. And as for tomorrow...

As you can see Eau Claire is currently in the general vicinity of the occluded front on the surface map. As the cold front overtakes the warm front winds will begin to shift to W winds more quickly. This cold front front will also cause the cloud cover to begin clearing. W winds will continue into tomorrow morning but as soon as the low pressure system currently over Utah moves into the Central United States wind direction will shift to SE. This will most likely occur later in the afternoon. Overall tomorrow should be a nice sunny day with mild W winds shifting to SE winds later on. I except the high for the day (mid 60's) will arrive in the early evening when the wind direction shifts to SE due to the warmer Gulf air drawn up by the low pressure system.

Current Weather Conditions for March 11th, 2012

If you would be so kind to look at the 300mb level map above you will notice the jet-stream is moving east to west through Canada. The high for today was 64 degrees Fahrenheit with SSW winds in the 5-10 mph range. Therefore my prediction for today was quite accurate. But enough for today, what about tonight and tomorrow? Well look what I saw a little earlier this evening...

It appears some mackerel sky patterning in some cirrocumulus clouds. Now I am sure a lot of you are wondering what this means. Well this mackerel patterning is an indication that the wind direction is changing.
Early on in the day winds were SSW which isn't much of a threat for precipitation with these types of clouds.

 However...

The barometric pressure has been falling since about midday. This is due to the low pressure system that has moved into the area. The low pressure system has caused a shift in wind direction from SSW to ESE. When Cirrus clouds of any type are moving in a direction from the E to SE, precipitation is most likely in the future. And that is exactly what I am predicting for tonight and tomorrow along with the continuation of upper 50 degree Fahrenheit highs. Expect a good amount of rain and lightning is also likely. Just look at the precipitation being drawn northward by the low pressure system on the surface map below.

Just how likely is that we will see a thunderstorm between tonight and tomorrow?

Well looking at the skew-T chart for Minneapolis I see that there is an LI value of 11.2. This bodes for a good chance of strong thunderstorms. Looking at the chart I also take into account that the Environmental Lapse Rate is between the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate and the Moist Adiabatic Rate. Therefore I know this air parcel is conditionally unstable. This means the air parcel needs a lifting mechanism, which I think the the warm winds from the low pressure system should provide.

Current Weather Conditions for March 10th, 2012

If you weren't outside today you are a fool, sorry but it's true. The high today was a beautiful 62 degrees Fahrenheit for those of you who are couch potatoes. As for now the temperature is 49 degrees Fahrenheit, winds are SW at 9 mph, and skies are clear. In regards to tomorrow I would like you to to direct your attention to the 300mb upper air data map. Notice the jet-stream (the blue area) is currently located north of Wisconsin. This has allowed for those warm moist winds from the Gulf, which I talked about in yesterday's post to move north. This is a weather pattern that we will see continue into tomorrow, resulting in another beautiful warm and sunny day. Expect temperatures to be very much the same as they were today.

Current Weather Conditions for Friday March 9th, 2012

As you can see we are currently pretty much in the center of a high pressure system. This has produced clear skies in the area along with shifting wind directions, although the predominate wind direction is SE at 5 m.p.h. Currently the temperature is 32 degrees Fahrenheit. However we are in for quite the change tomorrow and quite the treat.

I have shown you this type of graphic before but for those of you haven't seen it is a 300 millibar upper air data map. At the 300mb the jet-stream becomes very defined as you can see on the map depicted by the blue area. Notice how the blue is dipping down from Canada, over the Midwest, and sweeping back up through New England. This jet-stream pattern is what is known as Meridional. Although this pattern has caused cold weather today as the current high pressure system passes over the Midwest the jet-stream will move North. When this occurs it will allow for warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to move north. Later in the day a low pressure system will move into the the Dakotas and help suck this warm air North. So what does this all mean? Well my fellow Eau Claire residents we are going to have a beautiful sunny day with SE winds and a high of around 60 degrees Fahrenheit!

Current Weather Conditions for Wednesday March 7th, 2012

Apologies for the late night post, I haven't been feeling well today. Let's take a look at the current weather pattern in Eau Claire. It is 11:28 pm in Eau Claire and the temperature is 32 degrees Fahrenheit with overcast skies and WNW winds of 15 mph. If you are out and about Eau Claire tonight be careful on those sidewalks as it is cold enough for all of the snowmelt caused by the warm temperatures to freeze.

Earlier today winds were predominately from the South, however as you can see on the surface map a cold front from the WNW has pushed the warm front we enjoyed the last two days North. So you may be wondering, does this mean we will have cold temperatures tomorrow? The answer is not necessarily!

If you would be so kind as to direct your attention to the 300mb level upper air data map you will notice how the jetstream is dipping down in the southwest US and then sweeping back north of over the Midwest. Do despite W surface winds we are still experiencing warm air traveling to the Eau Claire area. This along with the heavy cloud cover that has trapped a lot of the heat caused by Tuesday's warm weather and bright sun should keep temperatures in the low 40's tomorrow.

Current Weather Conditions for Tuesday March 6th, 2012

Let me start this blog out with a question, have you all enjoyed the beautiful weather we've had today? Good, I thought so. Anyways...

Currently the temperature in Eau Claire is 54 degrees Fahrenheit with 7mph hour S winds. Although the surface is showing clear skies when I look at the sky I see a scattered sky with cirrostratus clouds taking form. What does this mean for tonight and tomorrow? Well tonight these cirrostratus clouds are going to grow much thicker and in effect trap much of the heat from escaping into the upper atmosphere. This means we are in for a nice warm night. However the the current S wind direction and cirrostratus clouds are indicating that we should expect precipitation in about 15-20 hours in our future. 

I would also like to point out the high latitude the jetstream is currently focused. Due it's northly position warm air from the Southern U.S. was able to make its way to Eau Claire, resulting in a 56 degree Fahrenheit today!

Current Weather Conditions for Monday March 5th, 2012

So that low pressure system that I told you about last night, the one I told you would bring warmer temperatures. Well it's here and yes I know you are wondering why it isn't nice a warm. Well I admit I didn't forsee the light snow it has brought. But don't worry, despite 100% alto-stratus cloud cover and a light snow it will get warmer today still. Direct your attention to the map below and you will see what I mean.

Notice how the edge of the warm front is directly over Eau Claire currently, once this passes the clouds will disapate as well allowing for sunlight to come through.


So currently along with that 100% cloud cover we have a temperature of 30 degrees Fahrenheit and S winds of 10mph. As for tonight expect these S winds to continue and into tomorrow as well. Once the center of this low pressure system moves though and cloud cover breaks expect some nice warming and mild temperatures to hold overnight. Then tomorrow we should be in for that beautiful 50 degree Fahrenheit day that I called for yesterday.

Current Weather Conditions for Sunday March 4th, 2012

Currently in Eau Claire the temperature is 19 degrees Fahrenheit with some partial cloud cover and 6mph WNW winds. Looking at the bigger picture with the help of the US surface map below, you will notice that we are currently under the affect of a high pressure system that is centered in Canada. There is also another high pressure system to our West and a low pressure system affecting southern Wisconsin. I point this out because the low pressure system is causing some snow in Southern Wisconsin. In fact I watched it fall as I drove back to Eau Claire from my hometown of Pewaukee today. I had some family matters to attend to over the weekend, which is why there are no posts for Friday or Saturday. I would like to apologize to you all.

But that's enough for current conditions in Eau Claire and in Southern Wisconsin, I have some great news! As this current high pressure system moves out of our vicinity we are going to see a low pressure system move in. Wait...wait...wait, before you complain, I assure this one is not bringing snow (well slush really) like the one last week. No this one is going to suck nice warm winds up from the South I suspect. Around the 5am-8am tomorrow morning we will start to see the wind to shift from W to SSW. I predict the high could be around 40 degrees Fahrenheit and quite possibly higher on Tuesday!

Current Weather Conditions for Thursday, March 1st 2012

That was quite the bought of weather we had earlier this week. The streets and sidewalks are still covered in slush, really deep slush actually. Looking at the surface map below you will notice that remnent of the storm is currently located over the northern reaches of New England and is no longer our worry.



 Well with this latest storm out of our hair let's take a gander at today's current weather conditions and the conditions we can expect moving into tonight and tomorrow morning. Currently we find ourselves in a high pressure system generating steady 6mph W winds, a temperature of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, and 100% altostratus cloud cover.

Moving on, look at the water vapor satellite map courtesy of Unysis taking note of the defined black channel running from the southwest area of the country through North Carolina and Virginia. This is what is known as a dry line.



Since the dry line is very evident today I wanted to point it out to you. A dry line is essentially the boundary between two airmasses of significant moisture content differences.In this case the drier airmass is on the northside of the line and the airmass with more moisture on the south. Dry lines are in this area of the United States are common and typically travel West to East.

Anyways back to the weather in our area. Throughout the day expect clouds to clear and temperatures to rise as barometric pressure rises as the high pressure system's center moves through. Let's bring the attention back to the surface now, directly to the west of the high pressure system in the midwest a low pressure system is trailing. This low pressure system will move in late tonight and hang around tomorrow. What we can expect from this low pressure system is dropping temperatures, dense sloud cover, and some snow (possibly rain/ice mix). Definitely some classic March 1st weather!