Winter Storm Tracker- Update

I know what you are all thinking and it's probably something along the lines of "what the heck man, you said no snow in the wind doesn't shift to NE!" Before you start freaking out and thinking we are going to get pummelled with snow, let me explain what's going on. I was itching to update this blog so badly during my three to five o'clock class this afternoon, when all of the snow was coming down. All of the snow you saw earlier was basically from the cool moist current of air being sucked up from the SE by the low pressure system. This low pressure system is still developing and won't really hit us hard quite yet. At this point what it looks like we are in for rain and ice. However the low pressure system moves through we may get some lighter snow due to the storms counter clockwise winds. I urge you to stay off the roads regardless and will continue to update the blog as the night progresses.

Tuesday February 28th, 2012: Winter Storm Tracker

The storm is on it's way, as indicated by falling barometric pressures throughout the day recorded by the metstation on top of Phillips Hall.

I elected not to update my post from last night, because there wasn't enough data to make an updated  prediction. As for today there have been some serious developments in the storm that developed in Eastern Colorado yesterday. To start things off I am going to show you an upper air mass map depicting conditions at the 300mb level.

I want you to look at the area in blue on the map, this is the path that low pressure system is going to take. So why am I showing you a map at the 300mb level? Well this level is just below the Tropopause and there is a lot of jet-stream activity at this level, which makes this map excellent for locating storm tracts. All of you who are praying we get dumped on tonight, hold on a minute before you start drooling over the swath of blue moving across the map. Let me say I am completely with you, but there is something happening that may thwart our hopes for some huge accumulation of snow. Let's take a look at what it is.

 First it is important to understand that as this low pressure system moved of eastern Colorado it has been sucking warm air from from the Gulf of Mexico. This is what is causing the SE winds of 8mph and a warmer temperature of 32 degrees Fahrenheit. If winds don't shift to NE winds like in north western Minnesota and North Dakota we will be be on the warm and mist side of this pressure zone. What does this mean? Well it means we probably won't see much snow, rather we will experience some pretty brutal ice and sleet. If the low pressure zone moves to far north of Eau Claire we will just experience a lot of rain.

For us with high hopes with snow, what conditions are necessary...
Well for starters we need to see that wind direction shift from SE to NE pretty soon. If you are just looking for a day of off school, you could be in luck. The wind may shift enough to get some serious ice, sleet, and maybe a little snow mixed in the salad as they say. When I look outside I am seeing pretty much 100% alto-stratus cloud cover and they are low and thick. This is indicating some precipitation soon that 15 hours most definitely. I have been watching a flag outside my house and have noticed the wind is moving around quite a bit. An indication that wind direction is going to change would the development of some cirrus clouds. So all of you dreamers pray for snow and watch for the wind direction to shift to NE winds!

Note: As this a really phenomenal day for weather, I will definitely update the blog later on tonight and most likely more than once! Come back periodically to check for updates!

Current Weather Conditions for Monday February 27th, 2012

I have quite the treat for all of you today. But before I reveal the exciting news to you all, I will let the suspense build a little and cover the current weather conditions in Eau Claire first. The wind speed is presently 8mph from the west. Visibility is excellent as of now due to zero cloud cover in Eau Claire's vicinity, allowing for the sun to shine. With no solar reflectivity to block out the sunlight we are enjoying a relatively mild February temperature of 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

Alright now for the news you have all been waiting for. This news is more than likely mostly going to excite students in the Eau Claire area, most adults...not so much. Over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday Eau Claire could potentially host some serious snow accumulation of snow. The conditions that will cause this storm includes a massive low pressure system moving east out of the Rockies in conjunction with a warmer moist air mass moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The low pressure system hanging out around eastern Colorado in the surface map above is the one I am talking about and is beginning its journey to the upper Midwest as we speak. As this is such an awesome weather event I will make another post later tonight to update you on the progress of this storm. There are a lot of variables that could make or break this snow day for all you college students. As we move into tonight I will be able to shed more light on the situation.

Current Weather Conditions for Sunday February 26th, 2012

Well the prediction I made last night didn't quite come to fruition today. Today I will show you what happened overnight that made my prediction inaccurate, how that is affecting current weather conditions, and what you can expect for later this evening. Let's take a look at the big picture by looking at the surface map.

 

So that warm I was talking about last night did in fact move north, right now it is moving through southern Wisconsin and central Michigan. Take note of the pink line over Eau Claire on the map stemming from where the cold and warm fronts are meeting. This is what is known as an occluded front. This occluded front is basically the boundary separating the cold and dry air mass to the west from the cool and moist air mass from the warm front to the southeast. This is evident on the surface plot below when you look at the dew-point temperatures. 

As you can see dew-point temperatures where winds are NW are much lower than those belonging to the SW and SE winds pushing that warm front through Southern Wisconsin. The weather pattern we are currently experiencing has made for some thick cloud cover with predominately alto-stratus clouds mixed in with some cumulus clouds to the southeast with 10mph SE winds. Currently Eau Claire is enjoying a mild 41 degree Fahrenheit February day. However as the day progresses the faster moving cold front is going to push the warm front we are currently enjoying out of the area. This means dropping temperatures and a shift in wind direction to SW winds. As the warm front is displaced by the cold front to the west we could some flurries as result.

Current Weather Conditions for Saturday February 25th, 2012

Sorry for the late post one again. I have way too much studying to do for a weekend. Anyways, did you notice the snow I called for early on this morning? So what kind of weather is in store for all you night owls? Let's take a look at the surface map.

Alright what I am currently noticing are SE winds of around 5mph, a current temperature of 24 degrees Fahrenheit, and 100% cloud cover.

Currently Eau Claire is lying between two different pressure systems, on to the North in Canada and high pressure system that's center is over Kentucky and Tennessee. Both of which expect to move out overnight. These pressure systems will make way for the low pressure system over Wyoming and Nebraska. What does this mean for tomorrow you might be asking. Well, expect a warm front bringing SSW winds and warm temperatures, possibly even reaching the mid 40's.

Current Weather Conditions for Friday February 24, 2012

Man am I glad it is Friday and I hope you all are too. Unfortunately the weather isn't as nice as most of us would like it to be on this Friday night. Let's take a look and see what is going on currently and what the weather could be tomorrow.

The image above is an infrared satellite image of the contiguous United States. Infrared satellite images, such as this one are very useful because of their ability to observe weather patterns during the night. I would like you to direct your attention to the swirling winds around the New England and Great Lakes regions of the United States. That my friends is a low pressure system created by the Continental Polar air mass. Sounds familiar, however looking at the surface below you can see the low pressure center is now located all the way to the East of The Great Lakes.

 

Let's take a look at how the big picture is affecting Eau Claire currently.

 

Currently in Eau Claire winds are from the NW at about 14 mph and we have complete cloud cover due to the low pressure system. Currently the temperature is 22 degrees Fahrenheit, but will continue to drop as the night goes on. With a current dewpoint temperature of 17 degrees Fahrenheit we could see snowfall when the temperature does drop.Other than the chance of snowfall conditions will remain the same into tomorrow morning.

 

Current Weather Conditions for Thursday February 23rd, 2012

Sorry for the late night post ladies and gentlemen, it has been a hectic day to say the least. I am also sorry for the incorrect prediction for snowfall I made last night, the front that would have brought snow showers moved just to the south of Wisconsin. Let's take a look at the current weather and what we can expect tomorrow morning.

Alright so as you can see there a quite a few different pressure systems at work in the contiguous United States currently, both high and low pressure systems. Notice there are two low pressure systems currently affecting Wisconsin. The pressure system affecting the Southwest region to the Green Bay area has a pressure center located in the Indiana and Ohio. The pressure system that is affecting Eau Claire has a pressure center located in Eastern Canada. By now I am sure you know what this means. Yes that's right the polar continental air-mass. This explains the cloudy skies we have tonight and NW winds of 6mph. Currently the temperature is 32 degrees Fahrenheit, expect this to drop down to 23 degrees Fahrenheit for the low overnight.



 
So if you have never seen one of these, this is what is known as a skew T plot. Due to lack of time I will post another for tomorrow and explain it more. Essentially what this tells me is atmospheric stability. Currently the LI reading of 10.9 and the KI reading of 2 indicate that the atmosphere is very stable and there is zero chance of a thunderstorm. 

Tomorrow there is some possibility for atmospheric instability causing a some snowfall, albeit most likely minimal accumulation. Other than that, we should still be hosting the continental polar air mass and WNW winds along with cloud cover and temperatures similar to today.

Current Weather Conditions for Wednesday February 22nd, 2012

Alright, I am busy man today. As of Monday I started training for a marathon, so I have to take advantage of this beautiful weather today and get my workout in. Let's jump right into the weather. Currently the temperature is 35 degrees Fahrenheit. As I predicted it is not as cloudy as yesterday due to warm temperatures and lower dew point temperature.

 If you caught the post yesterday you have seen this type of map before. For those that have not, this is what is know as an upper air-mass plot. Compared to the one I posted yesterday today's plot looks pretty similar. The polar continental air-mass is still affecting most of the contiguous United States but there are two differences. First is the center of low pressure has moved south and east slightly, partially over the Great Lakes. The second difference is the cold fronts we observed yesterday have been replaced by warm fronts. The second difference is what has caused less cloud cover today. Today there is partial cumulus and cirrus mixed cloud cover.

Wind direction should remain the same until late tonight and temperature drop to a low of 24 degrees Fahrenheit. Moving into early tomorrow we may see a high pressure system move in and the polar continental air-mass shift north of the Great Lakes region. If this happens wind from the ENE will likely blow through bringing a possibility of snow showers, which could leave around 1.5 inches of snow.

Current Weather Conditions for Tuesday February 21st, 2012

Sorry for the absence of my weather blog updates the last few days. I was at my cabin in McNaughton, WI helping my dad tap our maple trees. In don't hold you accountable if you couldn't locate McNaughton on a map because apparently my internet service can't either. So there haven't been any posts lately, anyways here is where McNaughton, WI is if you were wondering.

View Larger Map

Currently the temperature in Eau Claire is 34 degrees Fahrenheit with 16 mph SW winds. On top of that a think layer of alto-stratus clouds is successfully blocking out the sunset. Not exactly the beautiful weather we had last week. Let's take a look at what is causing the current weather.
  
The map above is an upper airmass plot of the continental United States also including parts of Canada, Mexico, and Cuba. Notice the NW direction the wind barbs are indicating in the Western U.S. and how it shifts gradually to the SW direction we are experiencing in Eau Claire. Also pay mind to the isobars on the map and there orientation. The isobars current pattern is showing a rather large low pressure system affecting the United States. The center of this low pressure system is located in Central Canada, that's right the Continental Polar airmass is back! The low barometric pressures also seen in Eau Claire ushered in by the Continental Polar airmass are the reason for the thick cloud cover and strong winds.

Expect this weather pattern to remain intact overnight. However, I predict tomorrow will be warmer than today due to a warm front that should make it's way to the Eau Claire area after this cold front moves out. I still expect we will have some cloud cover due to low barometric pressures.

Current Weather Conditions for February 17th, 2012

I'll admit I was bit disappointed to see that my prediction for winds to shift to prevailing NW winds today didn't come to fruition. However there are currently WNW winds at 6 mph in Eau Claire, my timing was just a little off. Presently the temperature is 32 degrees Fahrenheit but will continue to drop to around 20 degrees Fahrenheit for the low tonight. Honestly Eau Claire has been going through a pretty boring weather pattern recently but I can't argue with warm February temperatures. Weather for tomorrow will be very similar to the pattern I have predicted the last few days. However this pattern I have been observing could change tomorrow evening.

http://weather.unisys.com/mos/mos.php?inv=0&t=48h&region=mw

Take a look at the link to the forecast model from Unisys Weather above. It indicates that tomorrow evening wind direction will be coming from the Southeastern United States. It is very probable that this could occur. Click on the link below and take note of how the continental polar jet stream has been dipping farther south and the winds from the gulf have been creeping farther north and west. If this continues Eau Claire will enjoy a mild Saturday night due to the warmer airmass from the Gulf of Mexico.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us

Current Weather Conditions for February 16th, 2012

Alright, although a beautiful it has been a long day and I am hungry. Let me give you a run down on the current weather conditions and my forecast for tomorrow.

Take note of the barb at the top of the lines extending from the circle. It's direction is currently indicating W winds around 5 mph. The filled in circle is showing the cloud cover currently, which is a think layer of cumulus congestus and altocumulus. Presently the temperature is 34 degrees Fahrenheit. Tonight expect temperatures to drop to the upper teens for the low and cloud cover to continue. As for tomorrow, I predict we may see a slight change in wind direction. Instead of due West winds, winds may come from a more Northwest direction. If you look at the link to a 12 hour loop of the water vapor satellite image for today it is evident that that the continental polar jetstream has been gaining strength

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=us (Note this link will update, therefore the trends I have pointed out will not be visible in the future)

Despite the addition of the continental polar jetstream to our present W winds temperatures should still reach the mid 30's for the high tomorrow.

Current Weather Conditions for Wednesday February 15th, 2012

Can one ask for a more beautiful Wisconsin February day? Not really, that said I don't think clear skies and a high of 40 degrees Fahrenheit constitutes as tank top weather. I kid you not, I saw two girls on campus today wearing tank tops. Anyways, the clear skies we had earlier today have been replaced by relatively thick cover of altocumulus, altostratus, and cirrostratus clouds. Despite the cloud cover that has moved in, Eau Claire is still enjoying a nice 37 degree Fahrenheit temperature.

The surface data map is pretty interesting today. If you look at the direction of wind marked by the barbs, it indicates that the eastern half of Wisconsin has SE winds and the western half has W winds. In Eau Claire we currently have a W wind with a wind speed of about 5 mph. As we move into tonight we will continue to see these mild W winds and the temperature hit 23 degrees Fahrenheit. The flurries I was talking about last night are still very much a possibility. As for tomorrow we will also see the continuation of these W winds and cloudy skies. Expect another unseasonably warm day too. I project the high will be in the upper 30 degree Fahrenheit range.

Current Weather Conditions for Tuesday February 14, 2012

I know it may look and feel like a pretty average day outside. However once you get past the 100 percent altostratus cloud cover and current temperature of 28 degrees Fahrenheit there are actually some pretty cool weather patterns going on. To start off, look at the surface map below and notice all of the different pressure systems and fronts that the contiguous United States is currently experiencing.

Looking at the Unisys water vapor sattelitte image the mixing of air masses is even more noticeable. Take note of the absence of the polar continental jet stream sweeping across the midwest, unlike the image I posted last week. Its absence and the southerly winds we are observing is the cause of today's warmer temperatures.

As we move later into the evening winds will continue to be from the south and temperatures will drop into the low 20's. Tomorrow anticipate slightly warmer temperatures than today and winds from the south again. Moving into the afternoon tomorrow, snow showers are a possibility.

Current Weather Conditions for Monday February 13th, 2012

Sorry for the late post everyone. Well incase you haven't noticed, Eau Claire has accumulated around a half an inch of snowfall tonight. Winds are S at 6 mph. Currently the temperature is 21 degrees Fahrenheit. Don't expect much more snowfall accumulation overnight. Tomorrow winds will be mild and SSW. Temperatures will be warmer than today, the high will be around 37 degrees Fahrenheit.

Current Weather for Sunday February 12th, 2012

Sorry for the late post today! I had zero Internet access all day. Anyways let's get down to the nitty gritty because I'm tired and want to sleep. Currently we have 3 mph WSW winds in Eau Claire and the temperature is 12 degrees Fahrenheit, thankfully much nicer than last night. Moving into tomorrow winds will shift to predominately S winds. This will make for a relatively mild February day with the high around 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Expect slight cloud cover as well. Goodnight moon!

Current Weather Conditions for Saturday February 11th, 2012

Once again we find ourselves enjoying a brisk February Saturday in Eau Claire, WI. We have our friend, the polar continental air mass, to the north for 13 mph WNW winds with gusts up to 32 mph. If you've managed to ignore my sarcasm and the current 18 degree Fahrenheit that feels more like 4 degrees Fahrenheit with the windchill, well you are probably enjoying the sunny afternoon due to the lack of cloud cover. Look at the satellite image below and take notice of the polar continental air mass sweeping south and east across the Midwest.

You can expect winds to continue this movement overnight, as well as the continuation of clear skies and dropping temperatures as the sun sets.  The low for tonight should be approximately 3 degrees Fahrenheit but feeling more similar to -2 degrees Fahrenheit. Fear not though, early tomorrow morning the wind should shift to WSW winds. This means milder temperatures and winds. The high will be around 26 degrees Fahrenheit and clear skies are likely. Have a great Saturday everyone and bundle up tonight if you're going to be outdoors!

Current Weather Conditions for Friday February 10th, 2012

Man this semester has had a quick start, maybe it's this weather blog giving me some structure to my days. As you have probably already noticed it is cold. Hate to say it but, "I told you so!" Did anyone notice the flurries of snow I called for this morning? Anyways currently in Eau Claire it is currently 17 degrees Fahrenheit, but due to N 16 mph winds and a windchill of 1 degree Fahrenheit it feels much colder. Now that feels more like a Wisconsin February day to me, not that I missed it.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html

The link above is a satellite image of water vapor in the atmosphere. It really easy to see the continental polar air mass moving from Canada down and across through Montana and the Dakotas, then making its way up through the Great Lakes region and the Northeastern U.S.. The continental air mass is what is bringing stronger and colder winds than we have had in the past few weeks. Don't blame the weatherman!

Currently the Eau Claire area has a moderately thick cover of Altocumulus Duplicatus clouds. Throughout the day these glads will clear way for the sun to shine. Other than that the only thing you should expect throughout the day and into tonight is dropping temperatures. The low tonight could drop slightly below zero so be prepared!

Current Weather Conditions for Thursday February 9th, 2012

Enjoying the beautiful weather everyone? Currently there is zero cloud cover and the temperature is a scorching 35 degrees Fahrenheit, well at least for February. Looking at the surface map take notice that we are in high pressure system, which would normally mean cold dry weather this time of year. Due to the lack of cloud cover however, the sun has the go ahead to do its job.



 If you look at the surface data plot, the flag symbol indicates that winds are SW at about 5mph. Going into tonight the continental polar jet stream will bring NNW winds of around 7 mph. This will occur around midnight, this cold front will drop temperatures to about 9 degrees Fahrenheit. The polar continental jet stream will also bring some cloud cover to the Eau Claire area. Anticipate 10-15 mph N winds tomorrow morning, some cloud cover, and temperatures around 5 degrees Fahrenheit early on tomorrow morning. Don't be surprised if we see some scattered flurries as well.